Home sellers on the fence waiting for that perfect moment to sell should start preparations, because the best time to list a home in 2023 is approaching quickly. Nationally, home sale statistics show that the week of April 16-22 is expected to have the ideal balance of housing market conditions that favor home sellers, more so than any other week in the year.
This selection comes from looking at seasonal trends nationwide from 2018-2019 and 2021-2022 data. Due to the onset of the pandemic, 2020 was an uncharacteristic year and has therefore been excluded from the analysis. We expect the 2023 housing market to behave similarly to 2021, 2022 and pre-pandemic years in terms of seasonality. Each week was scored based on favorability toward sellers — this included competition from other sellers (active listings and new listings), listing prices, market pace (days on market), likelihood of price reductions, and home buyer demand (views per property on Realtor.com). While these statistics were developed for the whole country, Southwest Florida seasonal trends track very closely to these.
Collier County has historically quadrupled its population in the months of January through March, and historically many of these wintertime visitor decide they'd like to buy here when the season comes to a close. This makes the months of March and April, especially early April, the best time of the year to sell a home here. Once they're gone for the season (by May, usually), there are far fewer people here to buy houses.
2022 was yet another remarkable year for both the country and our area in housing, with prices reaching record high levels before the market cooled due to wide-spread lack of affordability. Mortgage rates started climbing at the beginning of 2022, increasing the cost of financing a home purchase significantly as home price growth continued to accelerate compared to 2021. Red-hot buyer demand cooled around the home price peak as evidenced by fewer pending listings compared to the previous year, as well as homes spending an increased time on market. Though housing demand cooled in 2022 relative to 2021, homes were still spending significantly less time on market than pre-pandemic and inventory remained well below pre-pandemic norms. However, sellers responded to this market slowdown by pulling back significantly on new listings. Builders also responded by slowing the rate of single-family home construction starting in February.
However, as 2022 concluded, mortgage rates fell slightly, enabling some buyers to re-engage with the housing market. Home sellers were less active in January 2023 compared to the previous year, but with home prices just 8.1% higher year-over-year–after a year of double-digit growth, and affordability slightly improved, the spring market could be advantageous for both buyers and sellers.
Benefits of Listing in April 2023
At a national level, this month represents a balanced selection of market conditions that favor sellers. While it does not have the highest price or the lowest time on market, this week offers higher than average prices and lower than average time on markets while also offering a higher than average number of buyers–measured as viewers per listing. While buyers vastly outnumbered sellers in recent years, we expect to see more balance between buyers and sellers in 2023. In more balanced housing market conditions, we expect the benefits of strategically listing during the most seasonally advantageous week to be greater.
Above-average prices
Homes during this week have historically reached prices 2.1% higher than the average week throughout the year, and are typically 12.1% higher than the start of the year. If 2023 follows the typical seasonal trend, the national median listing price could reach $8,400 above the average week, and $48,000 more than the start of the year.
Above-average buyer demand
The more buyers looking at a home, the better for the seller, and in most years buyers start earlier than sellers. Historically, this month garnered more views per listing than the typical week, and April is when there are buyers to look. Due to the departure of seasonal residents after April, the latter part of the year will see a drop off in buyer demand and increased time on the market for sellers who choose to sell after that.
Fast-paced market
Thanks to above-average demand, homes sell more quickly during this month. Historically, homes actively for sale during this week sold 18.0% faster than the average week. In the beginning of the fast-moving 2022 market, this week saw homes typically on the market for 6-8 days here in SWFL, where pre-pandemic homes could take 6 months to sell. Current inventory levels are around one month of sales. We don't expect the 2023 market to move as quickly as in 2022, but the best month is still expected to see a more rapid market pace than the year’s typical pace.
Less competition from other sellers
On the other hand, winter residents who are getting ready to leave for the season are looking forward to coming back next season, and they're not always anxious to let their properties go at this time of year. That means fewer sellers, keeping inventories low enough that demand from people who want to buy here will drive prices up relative to the rest of the year. The housing market remains undersupplied, so a seller listing a well-priced, move-in ready home is likely to find success. Because spring is generally the high season for real estate activity in SWFL and buyers are more plentiful earlier rather than later in the year, listing earlier in the spring raises a seller’s odds of a successful sale. Sellers will want to remember that it’s a process and to work patiently with their agent(s) to get the best price for their home, regardless of time of year.
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